Netanyahu's coalition falls eight seats short of a majority, and oil declines with the resumption of diplomacy
According to Bloomberg Television, 98% of the votes count leaves the prime minister with 53 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, while Brent falls to around US$114 and Nasdaq futures fall by more than 1%
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM BLOOMBERG TELEVISION · 3 MIN
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc came out ahead in the election, but was far from the majority needed to govern. According to Bloomberg Television, with 98% of the votes counted, he has 53 of the 120 seats in the Knesset and needs 61. There are eight left, and, in the opinion of the station's reporter in Jerusalem, it is not clear where to find them.
The scenario opened a period of political uncertainty. Israel could face a new election if attempts to form a government fail. The local market felt it: according to the broadcaster, Israeli shares and the shekel were under pressure.
Arabs can be decisive
Opponent Gadi Eisenkot commands 48 seats. The Arab parties total 19. According to the calculations presented in the broadcast, if the two joined Eisenkot, he would exceed 60 votes, but the task is difficult: one of the parties is seen as unviable for Netanyahu, and the other has signaled openness on issues such as mandatory national service and the Jewish character of the country. Even so, according to the broadcaster, this party alone would not take the bloc to the limit of 61. It will be up to the president of Israel to indicate who will try to form the coalition first, after consultations with party leaders.
Bloomberg Television also pointed out that Netanyahu could try to attract parties from the Eisenkot camp, which would be, in the words of the report, an arduous task, as this group has defined itself as the camp for change.
Diplomacy with Iran and oil
In the energy market, Brent fell around 1% and began trading at around US$114 per barrel, with the resumption of diplomatic efforts in the region. According to the broadcaster, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan had meetings related to Tehran. Iran's foreign minister said the country still gives diplomacy a chance, and President Donald Trump confirmed that Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to Iranian authorities regarding medical supplies.
The Bloomberg editor's assessment for the Middle East and North Africa is less optimistic: there has been no change in fundamental dynamics, the two sides have irreconcilable objectives and the market consensus points to a possible escalation led by the United States around the midterm elections. There is still a risk to supply: Saudi Arabia's oil exports remain close to wartime highs, according to preliminary ship tracking data, and ADNOC is preparing a new pipeline to bypass Hormuz, with delivery scheduled for early 2027.
Fed, interest and technology
In the United States, the Fed maintained interest rates at 3.2% to 4%, by 10 votes to 2, with two directors voting for an increase. President Kevin Warsh said the monetary authority is ready to act as circumstances dictate, but gave no clear signal about December. The yield on 10-year Treasuries hovered around 5%. According to the analysis shown, the expectation is for an increase in December and perhaps another in March, and the monetary authority will also change the meeting calendar from 2027 onwards.
The stock market reacted cautiously. Nasdaq 100 futures fell more than 1% and S&P 500 futures fell about 0.4%. Alphabet fell around 10% after hours, with earnings per share around 30% below expectations, while Microsoft rose close to 3%, driven by Azure, which grew 48%. Josh Gilbert, from eToro, assessed that the demand for artificial intelligence remains strong, but investors are more selective and look at cash flow: negative at Alphabet, positive at Microsoft. In Asia, Samsung disappointed with chip profits below expectations and Kospi fell.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
